From Local Shocks to Systemic Impacts: A Multi-hazard, Systems-based View of Physical Climate Risk

Overview

Please provide a detailed description of the notice you are adding: The final date and time for the submission of bids is Wednesday, 14th October 2026 at 11:00 DO NOT apply directly to the buyer. All tender information MUST be submitted through the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. Brief Description of Requirement It is broadly recognised that physical climate risk and related nature dependencies can pose risks to economic and financial stability. Governments and regulators in the UK and internationally have recognised this and continue to take action to address underlying vulnerabilities and support wider systemic resilience. Notwithstanding the clear need for accelerated global action, there remains significant uncertainties in appraising the future economic and financial implications of physical risk meaning market practices, government policy and regulation, may not be optimised (within the bounds of wider limitations and mandates) to align with climate-resilient pathways. Climate scenario analysis is a key tool to inform approaches to climate risk management. But due to the complexity and heterogeneity of climate risk, academic and industry evidence has highlighted that current mainstream scenarios – whilst highly sophisticated – may not capture all potential physical risk due to limited data availability and modelling constraints. Furthermore, whilst reference scenarios continue to be enhanced, some potential hazard exposures and highly complex systems dynamics may not be well suited to quantification through empirically calibrated, top-down damage functions, which provide estimates for economic damages in climate scenarios. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the potential for complementary methodologies to support more holistic approaches to physical risk appraisal and management. This is the focus of this research project. Specifically, research will focus on how local physical climate shocks (e.g. storms, flooding, droughts, heat stress) can - through cascading, compounding, and contagion effects - become systemic risks. There will be a particular focus on furthering understanding of UK vulnerabilities to climate shocks in other countries, with the objective of supporting improvements to industry practices and providing insights for government policy, regulation, and prudential supervision. This research project will be delivered in coordination with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Climate Scenarios Sandbox , with potential for insights generated through the sandbox to provide practical evidence regarding the utility of research outputs. The project will also be delivered in partnership with the recently established UK Taskforce on Climate and Nature Security and will, where possible, be aligned with ongoing work on high-impact climate possibilities at the Climate Financial Risk Forum. Please ensure you review all attached information to ensure a full understanding of this requirement. All attachments can be found with the Supplier Attachments tab within the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. This contract will be awarded based on the evaluation criteria as set out in the ITQ document. How to Apply UK Shared Business Services Ltd (UK SBS) will be using the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal for this procurement. To register on the Jaggaer eSourcing portal please use the link https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/ and follow the instructions to register as a supplier. If you are already registered on the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal and wish to participate in this procurement, please use the link: https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/. Once you are logged into the system you will be able to locate the Procurement you wish to leave a bid on by clicking the ITTs Open to All Suppliers and searching for the reference number PS26261. DO NOT APPLY DIRECTLY TO BUYER All submissions will be assessed in accordance with the Public Procurement Regulations that apply to this opportunity. Responses must be received by the date and t