Projecting UK Biodiversity Indicators into the future

Overview

The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) is the statutory adviser to the UK Government and devolved administrations on UK and international nature conservation Our role is to provide scientific evidence, information, and advice to inform decisions to protect the natural environment. Our specific role is to work on nature conservation issues that affect the UK as a whole and internationally, by: • advising Government on the development and implementation of policies for, or affecting, nature conservation in the UK and internationally; • providing advice and disseminating knowledge on nature conservation issues affecting the UK and internationally; • establishing common standards throughout the UK for nature conservation, including monitoring, research, and the analysis of results; and • commissioning or supporting research which it deems relevant to these functions. Background to JNCC can be found on JNCC's website at: https://jncc.gov.uk/about-jncc/ 2. Project Aims The overall aim is to produce a proof-of-concept test on how UK Biodiversity Indicators can be projected into the future to help inform conservation decision-making. The test will include making projections. These are not intended for operational use initially, but will aim to describe the steps, demonstrate potential outputs, and assess the feasibility of more routine application. The scope of the work at present is UK terrestrial biodiversity. 3. Project Background The UK regularly publishes a range of biodiversity indicators (https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/uk-biodiversity-indicators-2024/). These UK Biodiversity Indicators (UKBI) are used to track and report progress against international commitments made through the Global Biodiversity Framework. The indicators are wide-ranging, and encompass pressures (e.g. pollution), policy and management interventions (e.g. sustainable forestry), environmental outcomes (e.g. species population trends), evidence about biodiversity, and public interest and support for conservation. Some of the UKBIs are also used/adapted by individual UK countries, and are an important tool for wider communication of how biodiversity is changing. The analysis of current trends will continue to be essential. However, there is increasing recognition of the need for evidence about how the environment could change in future. There are several aspects to this, including: • Understanding the likely 'Business-as-Usual' future trajectory for pressures and interventions • Understanding impacts from individual policy options and decisions • Investigating the interaction between multiple policies, and the likely net outcomes under different assumptions about implementation • Understanding possible future changes in environmental pressures and the options for management and mitigation This evidence can enable more informed discussions on the balance of policies and how investment is allocated. It can also identify risks and opportunities, and provide a communication tool to raise awareness of possible future environmental trajectories (as used in broadly similar ways e.g. in relation to climate), rather than only focusing on past trends. Furthermore, projecting the UK Biodiversity Indicators gives a direct link with how the UK assesses progress on national and international environmental objectives. Being able to project these indicators and test responses to evolving policy priorities and wider socioeconomic changes would be a powerful tool to inform environmental decision-making. As such, JNCC are particularly interested in flexible and re-usable approaches that combine scenarios of potential environmental changes with models that project what effect these changes have on UKBIs. Related JNCC-supported work This project will contribute to a longer-term JNCC ambition to support the development and implementation of biodiversity projections to inform conservation decision-making, through the Biodiversity Pathways project (https://jncc.gov.uk/new