S30039 Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Overview

The project is to identify key individuals in at least four suitable fields to interview in relation to the techniques they use when handling both the analysis and presentation of uncertainty. At least one interview shall be conducted with a professional or subject matter expert from the Operational Research Society's Decision Analysis Special Interest Group. The other interviews should cover different and diverse approaches to give a wide range of ideas that could be of use within the field of transport planning. Consideration should also be given to non-UK based operations as these may follow different guidance or approaches. The examination of the results of these interviews should contrast the methods against standard transport planning approaches and against each other. Recommendations based upon this research should be made giving the relative merits and challenges for each of the approaches and techniques. This work should cover both transport modelling and transport-planning based analysis. Discussion of the relative merits of alternative ways of presenting the results of the analysis for decision makers should be included. While delivering the service, the Consultant must provide the following deliverables: - A technical note detailing the agreed choice of individuals and areas in which to undertake the interviews - A technical report on the results of the interviews and the conclusions reached for handling uncertainty within both transport modelling and transport-planning based analysis.