Use of EO data to calculate severe weather thresholds (Published in error)

Overview

Project Aims The overarching aim of this project is to develop an improved approach for using Earth Observation (EO) or other publicly accessible data to demonstrate whether ground at a specific location is frozen or has snow cover, with a reasonable level of accuracy and consistency. To achieve this the project will need to explore data available, issues regarding its use for this purpose, and comparative results from trialling different approaches. A secondary aim of this project is to provide JNCC with confidence that the proposed method is effective, and equipping JNCC with evidence that outcomes resulting from use of the approach are robust to stand up to potential challenge. Project Background JNCC runs the 'Severe Weather Scheme' (SWS), to provide a trusted mechanism to advise on the restriction of shooting of wildfowl and waders for conservation purposes during extended periods of severe weather, specifically when ground is frozen or snow covered. During such periods birds are naturally more vulnerable as it is harder for them to feed, whilst at the same time their energy requirements for survival are high. JNCC runs the scheme in collaboration and consultation with the country nature conservation bodies, environmental NGOs and shooting organisations. Information from the scheme is used to inform the Secretary of State, who has the power to impose a statutory suspension of shooting activities in all or part of GB under the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 Section 2(6). The Severe Weather Scheme monitors temperatures annually to determine if a suspension of shooting activities is advised. The scheme runs during the open season for shooting any of the relevant species, i.e. the period from 7th November to 20th February. In addition to providing information to inform statutory suspensions of shooting, the scheme also advises wildfowlers on 'voluntary restraint of shooting' and wider guidance on activities that could disturb birds such as watersports and dog walking. The SWS has been running since the early 1980s. Criteria as to what severity of freezing weather should trigger voluntary restraint or a statutory suspension was originally agreed by a working group comprised of ornithological and data experts from the British government's nature conservation advisory body, and non-governmental organisations representing shooting and conservation interest. The agreed criteria relied on manual daily checks at a selection of weather stations as to whether ground was frozen or covered in snow. In 2001, with increasing automation of weather stations, the manual checks were replaced with automated temperature threshold readouts of grass and air temperature, as a proxy to indicate frozen or snow covered ground. For many years the SWS has operated using these data provided by the Met Office, but the Met Office are now stopping the provision of these data, so an alternative approach is required. JNCC has done some preliminary light touch investigation of the feasibility of using data from Earth Observation (EO) and other sources as an alternative to data collected in situ by a network of Met Office ground weather stations. JNCC has piloted use of EU METOSAT Land Surface Temperature (LST) data in combination with Met Office forecast air temperature, but has noticed accuracy and consistency issues in the approach trialled. JNCC's initial investigations will be provided to the successful contractor to consider and inform their review and further investigation. Specific details of the criteria currently used in the SWS are available on the JNCC website. In essence, the SWS may trigger a shooting suspension - either voluntary or statutory - based on whether more than half of a network of weather stations in England/Wales (considered as a single unit) and/or Scotland report 'frozen' conditions (i.e. grass temperature below -2°C and air temperature below 1°C) for a set number of consecutive days or more, allowing for some short periods