How accurate is this?

It is a structured opinion, not a forecast. It cannot see the other bidders or the evaluation panel, so use it to compare opportunities against each other.

Does an incumbent always win?

No, but they start ahead on experience and transition risk. Challengers usually win on price, innovation or a clear service failure by the incumbent.

What if I score low on experience?

Look for subcontracting, consortium bidding or smaller lots to build a reference base first.

Free tender toolkit

Tender Win Probability Calculator

A quick, honest sense check before you commit to a bid. Rate how well the requirement fits what you do, how much directly relevant experience you can evidence, and how competitive your price is likely to be, then say whether there is an incumbent supplier.

Capability fit with the requirement: 7 / 10

Directly relevant, evidenced experience: 6 / 10

Expected price competitiveness: 6 / 10

Is there an incumbent supplier?

Estimated win likelihood: 46%
Read: Genuine contest
Bid or not: Worth costing

Estimate only, not financial or regulatory advice. This is an estimate only, provided for general guidance. It is not tax, accounting, financial or legal advice. Check any figures with a qualified professional before relying on them.

How it works

Each of the three scores is set from 1 to 10 and weighted: capability fit and relevant experience carry the most weight because they drive quality scores.
Price competitiveness reflects where you expect to land against the field, not your absolute price.
If an incumbent is defending the contract, the estimate is reduced, because incumbents usually score well on experience and mobilisation risk.
The output is a percentage band, deliberately rounded, because no model can read an evaluation panel.

Worked UK example

A cleaning contractor scores 8 for fit, 6 for relevant experience and 7 for price, bidding against an incumbent.

Weighted score before adjustment: around 70 out of 100.
Incumbent adjustment applied.
Estimated likelihood: roughly 50%.

A genuine contest rather than a certainty, worth bidding if the bid cost is proportionate.

Understanding your result

Treat the number as a prompt, not a prediction. Anything below about 30% usually means a weak fit or a missing reference that you can fix before the next opportunity rather than in this one. Anything above about 60% deserves a properly written bid rather than a rushed one. The most useful part of the exercise is often noticing which input you had to score low.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is this?: It is a structured opinion, not a forecast. It cannot see the other bidders or the evaluation panel, so use it to compare opportunities against each other.
Does an incumbent always win?: No, but they start ahead on experience and transition risk. Challengers usually win on price, innovation or a clear service failure by the incumbent.
What if I score low on experience?: Look for subcontracting, consortium bidding or smaller lots to build a reference base first.

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